Kenneth Katzman

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Kenneth Katzman

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a federation of seven principalities or "emirates." Itspopulation is assessed at nearly 10 million, but about 90% of the population are expatriates fromwithin and outside the region who work in its open economy. The UAE is a significant U. S.security partner that hosts about 3,500 U. S. military personnel at UAE military facilities, buyssophisticated U. S. military equipment, including missile defenses and combat aircraft, andsupports U. S. policy toward Iran. The UAE's August 2020 agreement to normalize relations withIsrael might further consolidate the U. S.-UAE relationship and help both the United States and Israel counter Iran. UAEpolicy will likely not change after after UAE President Shaykh Khalifa bin Zayid Al Nuhayyan, who has been largelyincapacitated since January 2014, passes from the scene; he is almost certain to be succeeded by his younger brother and defacto UAE leader Shaykh Muhammad bin Zayid Al Nuhayyan. With ample financial resources and a U. S.-armed and advised military, the UAE has been asserting itself in the region, including militarily. In part to counter Iran, the UAE joined Saudi Arabia in a military effort to pressure the Iran-backed ZaidiShia Houthi rebels in Yemen, a campaign that has produced significant numbers of civilian casualties and criticism of theUAE. That criticism, coupled with UAE concerns that U. S.-Iran tensions could embroil the UAE in war with Iran, mightaccount for an apparent UAE shift toward more engagement with Iran and a decision to remove most of the UAE's groundforces from the Yemen conflict. UAE forces continue to support pro-UAE factions in southern Yemen and, alongside U. S.special operations forces, continue to combat Al Qaeda's affiliate there (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP). TheUAE's involvement in Yemen, and U. S. sales of weapons the UAE is using there, have been the subject of congressionaloversight hearings and some legislation. Congress might evaluate a U. S. sale of the advanced F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to theUAE if a sale is agreed; U. S. officials say that the Israel normalization agreement has made an Administration decision toapprove that sale more likely. The UAE leadership's evaluation of Muslim Brotherhood-linked organizations as regional and domestic threats is asignificant factor in UAE policy. The UAE's stance on those groups has contributed to a major rift with Qatar, anothermember of the Gulf Cooperation Council alliance (GCC: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman). Qatarsupports Brotherhood-related groups as Islamists willing to work within the established political process. In June 2017, theUAE joined Saudi Arabia in isolating Qatar until it adopts policies closer to the UAE and Saudi Arabia on the Brotherhoodand other issues. In Libya, the UAE is supporting an anti-Islamist commander based in eastern Libya, Khalifa Hafter, whohas sought to defeat a U. N.-backed government that derives some support from Muslim Brotherhood factions