Annalisa Cappello

Probabilistic Modelling of Lava Flow Hazard at Mount Etna: Constraints Imposed by Eruptive History and Numerical Simulations Annalisa Cappello

Improving lava flow hazard assessment is one of the most important and challenging fields of volcanology, and has an immediate and practical impact on society. This books aims at presenting a methodology for the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards based on a combination of field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses. With the extensive data available on historic eruptions of Mt. Etna, going back over 2000 years, it has been possible to construct the hazard map for flank eruptions, allowing a quantitative analysis of the most likely future courses of lava flows. The effective use of hazard maps at Etna may help in minimizing the damage from volcanic eruptions through correct land use in densely urbanized area with a population of almost one million people. Although this study was conducted on Mt. Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas.