Joseph F. Cheney

China: Regional Hegemon or Toothless Tiger? Joseph F. Cheney

There are two contemporary views of expanding Chinese economic and military power. One view stresses how far China has come in its development. It looks at expanding Chinese military power, bellicose statements by key elites, and the 1996 military adventurism in the Taiwan Strait to warn that China is trying to become East Asia's hegemon. This view also warns of coming Sino-US conflict. The other view emphasizes how far China has to go to become a regional power. It looks at a China that is profoundly poor and lives on the edge of political and social chaos. It emphasizes the statements of China's leaders that they oppose hegemony and will never seek it. It stresses how weak the Chinese military is in comparison to US military presence in East Asia. This paper analyzes both views and concludes that while China is driven by history and culture to seek East Asian hegemony, it currently lacks the resources to achieve this goal in the face of US military power. This paper also concludes that the only possibility for China to achieve hegemony in the short term is to wage a diplomatic effort to force the US military presence out of East Asia.