Frank S. Virgadamo

When Reality Bites: Future Stability in the Arabian Gulf States Frank S. Virgadamo

The purpose of this research paper is to show that the five Arabian Gulf States of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (U. A. E.), all have growing threats to their stability that may result in sudden end to our use of their military bases. For long-term stability, the ruling pro-U. S. monarchies must quickly, and decisively, Findings of this paper discuss increasing instability caused by political problems, poor economic planning, and high citizen expectations. Gulf rulers are trying to maintain popular support while balancing traditional strategies of rule with more citizen representation. Economic diversification into non-oil sectors, regardless of large oil and gas reserves, is essential for Gulf States to employ growing populations and prepare for future economic downturns. A mix of high population growth and large foreign workforces are sapping state resources, a process reversible only by lowering citizen's expectations of future state benefits and automatic public sector employment. Although many of these findings are undetectable in the modern and confident faces Gulf States project to the world today, ignoring them for the sake of short-term benefits will lead to instability and a distancing from the U. S. if weaker rulers in the future acquiesce to opposition pressures for change. Recommendations are for the Department of Defense (DoD) to understand that the invitations to use Gulf State military bases are only as good as the strength of the host nation's governments that authorized them. The DoD must be ready for quick departures from one or more nations if the governments can no longer allow us use of their facilities. Being supportive to the governments, maintaining low profiles, and being cognizant of the future, we can plan accordingly and be ready for future challenges.