Alaa Eldin Soultan

Antelope Distribution in Egypt: Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Antelope's Distribution in Egypt Alaa Eldin Soultan

Knowledge about the distribution of antelope in Egypt is limited as there is no comprehensive monitoring program to assess the distribution and population parameters. Numerous studies indicate that Egypt is threatened by the anticipated changes in climate in future. Maxent software was adopted to develop the prediction of distribution ranges using the presence data points with a set of climatic and non-climatic variables. The current study shows that suitable distribution ranges for Barbary sheep and Nubian ibex cover approximately 6% of the total area of Egypt for each. The Barbary sheep is destined to become extinct, as it is predicted to lose 98% of its current range, while the Nubian ibex showed resiliency to climate change. The ranges of Dorcas gazelle and Slender-horned gazelle are predicted to cover < 30% of the total area of Egypt for each. The Dorcas gazelle is not predicted to be threatened by climate change and has the ability to expand its distribution range. The Slender-horned gazelle will be threatened by climate change, as it is predicted to lose 75% of its distribution range and is destined to become endangered.