John M. Polimeni

Spatial Simulation Modeling: Projecting Residential Development in the Hudson River Valley of New York State John M. Polimeni

This book projects residential development in Hudson River Valley watersheds within Dutchess County in New York State using an integrated modeling framework consisting of a novel spatial econometric model, a geographic information system (GIS), and Monte Carlo simulation. A spatial econometric model is used to project residential development at the tributary watershed level, sub-watershed level, and census block level. GIS is employed to extract socio-economic and county-level tax parcel data to be used in conjunction with bio-geophysical attributes, such as slope, soil, and location attributes, to calculate and project growth trends on a residential level for undeveloped land parcels. Monte Carlo simulation is used to distribute these projections into the GIS to display dynamic development scenarios using regional maps to help policy-makers in their decision-making processes. Detailed case studies, consisting of several related scenarios, are used to present stakeholders the economic, social, and environmental implications of a possible course of action.