John Njenga Karugia

Africa Conflict Prevention: Early Warning and Early Response: a Critical Analysis of Ecowas, Igad and Sadc Systems John Njenga Karugia

The complex algebra of the emergence and evolution of Early Warning and early response systems in Africa is analysed through studying closely the actions of ECOWAS, IGAD and SADC. We examine their analytical capacity, their dependence on aid, their standby capacity, the degree of and quality of Early Warning Systems institutionalisation, the dominance of certain countries and the internal organisational dynamics of these regional organisations. We conduct diagnostics to understand their current and future usefulness and effectiveness. We analyse the diffusion and institutional isomorphism of culturally-specific models of Early Warning Systems in Africa. Ideas and behaviours of individuals are emphasized as we attempt to demonstrate how they affect politics and political institutions, hence affecting processes that shape conflicts in Africa. We demonstrate the role of political will and a strong analytical capacity in shaping preparedness for violent conflicts in Africa.