Wolf-Dieter Eberwein

Transformation Process in Eastern Europe: Perspectives from the Modelling Laboratory Wolf-Dieter Eberwein

The collected essays in this book deal with scientific experiments about a real one: the transition from communism to democracy, and the transformation of command to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe. In the first part of the volume core issues involved in the breakdown and transformation of these nations are raised, among others the sequencing of economic reforms and conditions leading to political system breakdown and reconstruction. Simulation models in economics and political science which might be useful to explore systematically the complexity and dynamics of transformation processes are reviewed. Simulation experiments using such models are presented in the second part analyzing alternative developmental paths of the societies in Central and Eastern Europe. Will some of the Eastern European nations be able to integrate into the world economy? How will Poland achieve the transition from a supply to a demand driven economy? What are the implications of the transition to democracy for the former GDR for political stability? And to what extent will the former GDR economy be able to catch up with that of the former FRG? Finally, data availability and quality for systematically reconstructing past developments and analyzing present trends is discussed in detail.