Jonathan Bales

Fantasy Football for Smart People Jonathan Bales

The daily fantasy sports landscape is changing. Predicting player performance is only half the battle; in tournaments, top DFS players are exploiting weaknesses in public psychology to profit big. This requires a fundamental understanding of what drives public opinion-what motivates us to make decisions and where we go wrong-and the ability to accurately forecast how it all affects player ownership in DFS leagues. The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS takes a two-pronged approach to turning you into a better daily fantasy football player. In the first section, you'll learn how various cognitive biases can shape your beliefs. Why do DFS players overvalue recent performance, overestimate their ability to make accurate predictions, and deal so poorly with risk and uncertainty? More important, how can you benefit from their mistakes? The second section takes a data-driven look at both daily fantasy football tournament ownership and value. Which metrics predict not only which players perform well, but which ones will be popular in tournaments? How much do the Vegas lines matter, when should you value recent production, and how can you find both undervalued and under-owned players at each position? You'll learn specific instructions on how to exploit inefficiencies in others' lineups to give you a leg up on the field. Using historical data to see what actually predicts daily fantasy football value and ownership, The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS will equip you with the tools you need to leverage weaknesses in the way other players think and act into a major competitive advantage.